CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 12Z FRI 10/10 - 06Z SAT 11/10 2003
ISSUED: 10/10 10:45Z
FORECASTER: HUGO

General thunderstorms are forecast across PARTS OF CENTRAL & NORTHERN EUROPE

SYNOPSIS

Upper long wave trough dominates through Northern Europe in association with surface low pressures and an active PFJ...The majority of Southern & Western Europe is dominated by surface high pressure in assocation with a slack upper level pressure gradient...Contours will rise during the forecast period into the UK in association with a developing surface high pressure behind an active low pressure clearing into Scandinavia...A cold polar West to Northwesterly will dominate through Central/Northern Europe in association with the Eastward moving surface low pressure...Overall no severe thunderstorms are expected...

DISCUSSION

...SEE TXT AREA (GEN RISK)...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the SEE TXT region during the forecast period in association with the unsettled and cyclonic synoptic pattern...As with the last couple of days there is no specific region at greater threat of thunderstorm activity however once the polar West to Northwesterly moves into the BENELUX and then through into Germany & Poland later today this maybe a region for a greater threat of thunderstorm activity...Forecast soundings on the whole show little CAPE and generally a poor atmosphere in relation to convective activity/development...However with a strong PFJ in association with the cyclonic conditions deep layer shear values (0-6KM) within Central Europe are in excess of 30KT with possible values upto 60KT coupled with high low level shear (0-1KM) in excess of 20 to 30KT any thunderstorm activity that does develop may become multicelluar...But again the overal risk of thunderstorm activity should generally be minimal in relation to a poorly repsonsive atmosphere...An update maybe needed if thunderstorms do develop within the Polar West to Northwesterly as some strong surface gusts with maybe some moderate sized hail could occur...The main region at risk from this occurance is as mentioned above the BENELUX and then through into Germany and Poland...

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